2022 Annual Report

Introduction

Numinar set out four years ago to solve a major problem: political campaigns and organizations were using old and out-dated technology to reach voters and engage them. Politics doesn’t often attract technical talent, so campaign tools get built by political operatives.

Today, we believe more than ever that if we want to incorporate the next generation of Americans into the political process, campaigns need to adapt to modern changes in data, communications, and machine learning. Numinar is at the forefront of this movement rippling through the political industry. We are pioneering the use of voter data platforms, self-service polling, and AI-powered modeling to help campaigns better understand, target, and message to their electorate.

With over 300 campaigns representing 4.5x growth over last cycle, 2022 was our biggest year yet. State parties, caucuses, and committees are joining every day, and we believe Numinar can be the right’s leading technology provider by 2025. To all of our campaigns, users, and supporters, thank you for your belief in our mission. The best is yet to come.

Will Long

CEO

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Immense Growth

Overview

2022 was an exciting year for Numinar! We had a significant impact on races in an important election cycle and proved that our data-driven approach to campaigns can be deployed at scale across the country. As we look forward to 2024, we wanted to share some of our learnings and highlights from this last year.

Campaigns

Over 300 political campaigns used Numinar last year, almost five times as many as in the 2020 cycle! Our 3,600 users and volunteers were spread over 38 different states across the country.We were also excited to attain Approved Vendor status from the RNC, making Numinar one of only a handful of technologies vetted and trusted by the party. As a result, we had the privilege of working with four different state parties and even a national committee for the first time. These campaigns used Numinar to engage over six million voters during the election, making this our most impactful cycle ever.

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Results

Equally important to us is the experience our users had on Numinar. Our end-of-year survey of users showed almost everyone who used Numinar this year loved it.

We also know how important responsiveness is to campaigns and are proud of our one minute median response time to support chats. Our amazing Campaign Strategy team ensured every user got the resources they needed.

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Platform development

One of the core differentiators that we pride ourselves on here at Numinar is our engineering ability. At the beginning of the cycle, we released our newest V2 platform with support for even the largest campaigns with millions of voters.

In 2022, our team of software engineers released a new feature every two weeks this year including offline mode for Numinar mobile, self-service data uploads, and model creation powered by machine learning.

We worked hand-in-hand with campaign staff, consultants, and party leaders to ship features that users on the ground were asking for. This collaborative process resulted in half a million lines of code written in 2022.

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2022 by the numbers

• 4,933,670 Text Surveys

• 2,805,998 IVR Surveys

• 106,820 Canvass Surveys

• 59,813 Live Call Surveys

• 318 Total Campaigns

• 93% Satisfaction Rate

• 63 Post-Election NPS Score

• 1.2 minute Median Response Time

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Analytics

Against the trend, a successful cycle

Numinar’s AI had another successful cycle as we worked with hundreds of campaigns across the country. Across a variety of races from the US Senate down to local offices, Numinar’s AI helped provide accurate assessments of the big-picture view of where our clients stood.

Across all users, Numinar’s AI prediction had a median margin of error of only 4.1% and for campaigns that collected at least 5,000 responses over the course of the election, the average margin of error was just 3.1%.

In other words, when the AI was fed more data, it was able to learn and improve its predictions. Just as importantly, the AI provided individual-level scores for each voter that campaigns were able to use for targeted outreach.

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Causal analytics

One of the things we consistently heard from campaigns was the need to know how to effectively allocate their budget across calls, doors, and texts in a data-driven way. In response to that challenge, we decided to innovate a new class of statistical models that would go beyond predicting voter preferences to actually measuring the impact of each form of voter contact.

The initial results of our analysis and randomized control trials indicates that a generic text message improved the likelihood of turnout by 1.3% while an IVR increased it by 3%. These impact scores at the individual level will enable future Numinar users to identify the right lists to target with calls, texts, and canvassing. Our insights will continue develop as we gather more data throughout 2023.

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