‍Local races, national stakes

In November 2020, all eyes were on Georgia. The once-solid red state had become a political battleground in recent years. With a 105-74 majority from 2018, Republicans had a majority in the state house, but Democrats needed just 16 out of the total 180 seats up for election to take control of the chamber

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With this huge task at hand, the Executive Director of the House Republican Caucus, Jay Walker, turned to Numinar as the tool of choice. He was overseeing 30 Republican candidates fighting in Georgia’s toughest battleground districts. Walker needed a system that could: 

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1. Give candidates a full campaign toolkit to reach voters despite COVID-19.
2. Coordinate and support dozens of demanding campaigns.
3. Provide real-time snapshots of each campaign’s progress and a path to victory.

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Preliminary modeling and polling identified 16 likely competitive races within a 10% electoral margin. The House Caucus would have to fight hard to keep their majority.

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Grassroots from the living room

Before Numinar, campaigns across the state were unsure of how they would raise money and reach voters in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. But they found the solution they had been looking for with Numinar and deployed it straight away.

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On day one, every campaign in the Caucus received access to a powerful voter data, analysis, and contact platform with the capacity to deploy calls, texts, and canvassing. Numinar not only provided the “how” for voter contact, but also the “who” by using AI to generate lists of high impact voters, prioritized by importance. 

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Rep. Chuck Efstration, running in the 104 th district, texted constituents from his living room. He responded directly to voters’ requests for absentee ballots. “[It was] very easy to use the platform. Responses to texting were actually great, amazingly!” With Numinar, the average campaign with under 3 volunteers contacted thousands of voters from the comfort of their homes. 

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Numinar’s Deployment Strategists helped campaigns with everything from training to support and messaging. They built the Caucus a centralized dashboard to track the performance and activity of each campaign.

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Numinar’s median response time to inquiries sent through our chat support system was just about 1 minute, with a 95% user satisfaction rate. As Janet Newman running the 134^th district campaign put it, “the training and client assistance is one thing that really sets [Numinar] apart.” 

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Hitting the bullseye

Another Numinar innovation deployed in Georgia was the self-service polling system. With just their laptops, each campaign built and sent over 88,000 Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) and 114,000 text randomized surveys.

Combined with AI-powered modeling, Numinar achieved an incredible 3.2% median margin-of-error. As Rep. Houston Gaines from the 117 th District put it, "Your forecast on support was more correct than anything I had."

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Winning across the state

By November 3^rd, the hard work by Walker, the campaign teams, and the Numinar staff returned dividends. With this outstanding performance, the Republican Party held onto control of the State House in a remarkable electoral victory. 

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The House Caucus had vastly outperformed expectations, winning 27 out of 30 tossup races—a 90% win rate in highly competitive districts! Voters contacted through Numinar’s targeted GOTV turned out at a 12% higher rate than the rest of the population. 

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Candidates looked to Numinar as a decisive factor in their victories. “I really feel like the platform and the added support through the campaign was completely distinguishable from any other platform I've seen in the past,” Efstration remarked after winning reelection in the 104^th district, “I think it's extremely exciting and the model for the future to successfully deploy grassroots.” 

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Walker put it in even stronger terms, “Once or twice in my career, a new company comes along that gives a peek into the future of campaigns. Numinar is that company. They were an integral part of our campaigns and we could not have won without them.”

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